Rick Santorum recently announced that he would be running for President under the GOP ticket. Recently, Fox News announced that its Republican presidential primary debate in August would include only the 10 candidates polling the highest in national surveys. After the announcement, Rick Santorum denounced the criteria, according to The New York Times.
“In January of 2012, I was at 4 percent in the national polls, and I won the Iowa caucuses,” said Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania, who is now near the bottom of most national surveys.
Fox News announced Thursday that the debate competitors would be determined by averaging their last five major national polls. The top 10 competitors will be allowed to debate. The field could expand to 11 if there’s a tie for 10th, according to CBS News.
Santorum’s concern may be legitimate. The situation is reminiscent of Ron Paul in 2012. Paul was excluded from the first Fox debate that year although he performed well in some polls. The 2011 Straw Poll showed that Ron Paul was a legitimate candidate in Iowa. Paul finished second. Paul finished third in the caucuses with 21 percent of the vote, according to the publication The Iowa Republican. Paul also placed first in a Fox News poll, but Fox changed the location of the poll on their website to an area difficult to find, writes RT.
Similar to George Bush after 9/11, French president Francois Hollande is seeing a spectacular revival in his dismal popularity ratings after the terror attacks in Paris earlier this month.
According to sources, two major surveys yesterday showed French voters applauding his handling of the country’s most deadly Islamist attacks.
The boost for Hollande and his government, however temporary, prevented the anti-immigrant National Front party of Marine Le Pen from capitalizing on this month’s Paris violence as some analysts had predicted, one of the surveys showed.
Also similar to Bush, while the French leader’s improved image could help him combat resistance to his economic deregulation drive that is going through parliament, poll groups said the downbeat jobs outlook meant the boost in polls might not last.
Three gunmen killed 17 people in Paris two weeks ago, including staff at the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo, before they themselves were shot dead by security forces.
Rasmussen released a poll of the Kentucky Senate race that showed Mitch McConnell leading Alison Lundergan Grimes 52%-44%.
In 2010, The New York Times also found Rasmussen polls biased, claiming:
“Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.”
The Rasmussen poll that has Mitch McConnell leading Alison Lundergan Grimes by eight points comes with more than a few statistical red flags that should give anyone who bothered to look some serious cause for concern.
Rasmussen poll gave Mitch McConnell a positive job approval rating of a net (+2) 49%/47%. The same poll gave Grimes an unfavorable rating of a net (-4) 46%/50%
For the last few years, Mitch McConnell has been one of the least popular senators in the country, so any poll that shows McConnell with a positive approval rating is clearly oversampling Republicans.
The Rasmussen poll also has Mitch McConnell getting 24% support from Democrats, which Politics USA felt was high.
In both 2010 and 2012, Rasmussen was at the bottom of 538’s pollster rankings because of their high margin of error, and Republican bias. Rasmussen has had a margin of error as high as six points, and they have maintained a four-point bias towards Republicans.
Nate Silver determined that Rasmussen’s polls were off by 5.9 points and had a 3.9 point bias in favor of the Republican candidates in 2010:
“Polls branded as Rasmussen Reports missed by an average of 5.9 points and had a 3.9 point bias. The polls it commissioned on behalf of Fox News had a 5.1 point error, and a 3.6 point bias.
“Rasmussen showed Barack Obama’s disapproval rating at 36 percent, for instance, just a week after his inauguration, at a point when no other pollster had that figure higher than 20 percent.”
According to Politics USA:
“Another problem is that Rasmussen does not poll cell phone users. Instead of polling cell users, they use an online panel and landline phones to compile their data. The problem with not polling cell phone only users is that the poll leaves out younger voters who are more likely to support Democrats.”
Nate Cohn said this:
“Many of the surveys to date have been conducted by firms that use automated phone surveys and combine deficient sampling with baffling weighting practices….last week, one automated polling firm, Rasmussen Reports, released a survey of likely Georgia voters that was significantly younger than one would expect for a midterm election. A hefty 34 percent were 18 to 39, while voters over age 65 represented just 17 percent of likely voters….There were other peculiarities in the Rasmussen survey.
“Voters of some ‘other’ race — neither white nor black — represented 12 percent of the sample, which would smash the record 8.7 percent of voters who were of ‘other’ race in 2012. More realistically, ‘other’ voters might be expected to represent 5 to 7 percent of voters this November. On the other hand, just 24 percent of voters were black, a number likely to be too low.”